Technical Analysis - Financial Markets

Risk markets were choppy yesterday, although recovered from their respective worst levels of the day heading into the afternoon. The early risk-off price action was led by the continued farce over the Greek PSI talks and whether they will pass the necessary reform measures to get the next bailout tranche. The Euro closed small down on the day, having tested the lows made last week. The bund saw firm trade, recovering much of the sell-off seen on Friday.



Market Analysis 7th February 2012:


Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) Open:138.47 Low:138.44 High:139.14 Close:138.94








The Bund closed firmly on the day, recovering a big chunk of Friday’s losses. The market has moved back above the 138.50 handle, and thus should dissipate some of the bearish forces. However, it has left the market interestingly poised. A move through yesterday’s highs should signal that the market has corrected and a move to fresh record highs may be on the cards therefore. Otherwise, if yesterday’s lows give, we are likely to see a good and strong trend lower over the course for the week.

Support

138.13 **
137.86-94 **
2.00% ***
137.12-18 ***
136.60-69 ***

Resistance

1.636% ****
140.50 **
140.23 ***
139-89 **
139.14 **











FTSE 100 Index Futures Open:5861.5 Low:5819.5 High:5862.5 Close:5853.5








The FTSE closed lower on the day, recovering from a dip to 5819.0 on the lows. The market looks set to continue higher should it remain firm above the 5766.5-73.5 area. A move back below here may serve to start a shake-out of momentum longs however bears need a lot of work to do if they are to effect a turn in trend.

Support

5766.5-73.5 **
5689-73.5 **
5605-09.5 **
5539-59.5 **
5442-54.5 **

Resistance

6150 **
6095 ***
6049 ***
5913-31 **
5878 **











EURO STOXX 50 Index Futures (FESX) Open:2511 Low:2486 High:2513 Close:2507








The EuroStoxx was small down on the day, recovering form a dip to around the 2493 level. Above the 2486-93 area, the market should continue to favour bulls, with a break of Friday’s highs then likely. A move back below the 2486-93 area may shake out fresh momentum longs although the market remains firmly above areas which would serve to attract real sellers if they give.

Support

2455-62 **
2397-02 ***
2268-75 **
2266-72 **
2225-42 **

Resistance

2608-13 **
2544-53 **
2503 ***
2560 **
2525 **











DAX Futures (FDAX) Open: 6754.0 Low:6718.5 High:6786.5 Close:6769.0








The Dax closed small down to flat on the day recovering from a dip to 6718.0 on the lows. First support is around the 6688.5-6718.0 level and as long as the market remains above here, we should see a continued move higher. A close below may spark the onset of a small correction.

Support

6688.5 **
6538-79.0 **
6416 **
6338 **
6264-85.5 **

Resistance

7299 **
6992.5-42 ***
6972.5 **
6860 **
6795-02.5 **












Fundamental Analysis:


Economic Calender








Time (GMT)CountryDataMonth
ExpectedPrevious

11.00

DE

Industrial Production M/MDEC

0.0%

-0.6%

11.00DE

Industrial Production Y/Y

DEC4.3%3.6%
15.00USFed's Bernanke Speaks------
15.00US

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

--

----
15.00USJolt's Job openings------










German Industrial Production








This index measures the performance of industry in Germany every month. Based on nationwide surveys of manufacturing operations with more than 50 staff, the index reflects information on the monthly production of more than 6,000 industrial products. The data collection process is comprehensive as around 80% of the value of German industrial production is included. The provisional results of the survey activity are released around 38 days after the end of the reference period, making the report less timely than many other economic indicators. Therefore, although the report is accurate and reveals important information concerning Europe’s industrial powerhouse, its lack of timeliness makes it very much a second tier report for our traders.
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